Released in 2016, Captain America: Civil War was praised by many who said that it is one of the best movies of the MCU. The movie was said to have major impacts on the lore of the universe as a whole, such as the separation of the Avengers, the introduction of major characters such as Spider-Man and Black Panther, the return of characters like Winter Soldier, etc. However, now with the release of movies such as Avengers: Infinity War, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Black Panther and others, it is time to analyze the true impact this movie had in the lore. And how do we do that? We completely erase the movie from existence and we see how much does the current lore change. So let's see what if MCU's Civil War never happened?

Black Panther

Introduced for the first time in Captain America: Civil War, Black Panther has quickly escalated from a somewhat unknown character for the wider audience to a character who made more than one of the most iconic superhero teams in the world. However, the events that took place in Civil War were crucial for the character's lore.

In this hypothetical situation, Avengers: Age of Ultron still happened, that means that the Wakandan missionaries are in Nigeria, however, as Crossbones was never there, the missionaries were left in peace, differently from the outcome in the Civil War movie. As the tragedy in Nigeria never happened, T'Chaka wouldn't head to the U.N. Vienna headquarters to discuss the Sokovia Accords, therefore he wouldn't die due to the terrorist attack and T'Challa wouldn't take the throne. Though, as the tie-in comic shows, he was already in the process of becoming Black Panther since the events of the first Iron Man.

With T'Chaka still in command of Wakanda's nation, chances are he wouldn't have opened up the country for the world and the events of the movie wouldn't happen, as Killmonger only had a shot at taking the throne due to the death of T'Chaka and T'Challa's ceremony as a king. As a consequence of that, M'Baku's tribe would not have reconciliated with the rest of Wakanda and the Black Panther character would remain unknown to the Avengers and other MCU heroes.

Spider-Man

One of the most well-known Marvel characters out there, Spider-Man was first introduced in Civil War after long negotiations between Disney and Sony about the character's rights. Not long after, he got his own solo movie in the MCU, Spider-Man: Homecoming.

Although Spider-Man was introduced in Civil War, it was said in this very movie that Tony Stark already had his eyes on Peter Parker, who was already acting as Spider-Man prior to the movie events. Given how the Avengers did not split up in this universe, Spidey would most likely be introduced to the team as some sort of trainee or potential Avenger. Given how Captain America was left responsible for a group of "rookie" avengers by the end of Age of Ultron, it is only fair that Steve Rogers becomes the training figure for Peter Parker instead of Tony Stark. He, however, would most likely receive the first suit.

Meanwhile, the events of Spider-Man: Homecoming would change a little bit. Under the surveillance of Steve Rogers instead of Tony Stark, the suit argument scene, for example, would most likely not happen, that leading to Spider-Man not understanding that "if he is nothing without the suit, then he doesn't deserve the suit", however, perhaps under the training of Steve Rogers he might get his mindset closer to the one by the end of Homecoming. Also, with Cap's training and assisting the "New Avengers" as shown at the end of Age of Ultron and beginning of Civil War, Spidey would become a much more versatile and well prepared fighter, struggling less to defeat the Vulture.

Ant-Man and the Winter Soldier

Ant-Man already had his own solo movie by the time Civil War came out, this was however, the first time he fought alongside the Avengers in a movie. However, the end of Ant-Man already hints that there is someone (in this case it is probably Falcon) that works for The Avengers looking for Scott. Hank, due to his hate for Tony Stark, would not want Scott to join the Avengers, but just like he did in Civil War to join Cap's team, he'd most likely steal the suit and join it anyway.

This means that Scott won't be arrested and won't be forced into house prison, so he continues in the Avengers, though he breaks ties with the Pyms. The events of Ant-Man and the Wasp would remain the same with minor differences, the major one being the mid-credits scene. As in this hypothetical situation Scott is with the Avengers and isn't under house arrest, he may join the Avengers in Infinity War.

Winter Soldier, aka Bucky Barnes, returned in Civil War as a key character for the conflict as a whole. However, his re-appearance was only due to the terrorist attack at the U.N. As the Sokovia Accords and the meeting didn't happen, as the catalyst (the Nigeria explosion) didn't happen, Cap wouldn't go looking for Bucky and the latter would remain hidden in Romania, not participating or returning for the Infinity War events.

The Avengers and the Sokovia Accords

Even though Age of Ultron still happened in this hypothetical universe, the catalyst event for the Sokovia Accords (the Nigeria tragedy) did not happen, and the Sokovia Accords as a whole does not exist, preventing events such as T'Chaka's death and Bucky's return.

However, what is probably the biggest factor here is the Avengers roster. In Civil War, the team split into two different ones, an official one led by Tony Stark and a secret one led by Captain America. Without the movie, the roster wouldn't split and it would even amplify. This changes the fate of some characters for the Infinity War movie, such as Vision and War Machine.

Without the tragic events of the movie, Scarlet Witch and Vision wouldn't need to run away to Scotland, since SW's status as a fugitive wouldn't exist. They could perhaps stay in Scotland to stay away from the Avengers for a while, but in this alternate universe, they don't really have a reason to run away. War Machine, who was injured during the airport battle, does not have to go through the treatment, but that is a somewhat minor factor. Other characters such as Falcon, Captain America, Black Widow and others don't have to go into hiding and can remain in the Avengers mansion. Although CW being used as a major factor, Hawkeye still retires from the Avengers from what was established in Age of Ultron.

So the roster stays as it follows: Iron Man, Captain America, Vision, Scarlet Witch, Black Widow, War Machine, Falcon, Ant-Man, Spider-Man and possibly The Wasp.

Avengers: Infinity War

Released in April 2018, Avengers: Infinity War is the biggest Marvel movie yet, being the culmination of 10 years of MCU, being praised by both fans and critics. However, with all of those differences caused by the exclusion of Civil War, how different does this movie become? Does this new roster of Avengers manage to defeat Thanos and the Black Order? Or do they fail all the same? We're analyzing scene by scene and how different do they become to figure that one out.

So the pre-credits scene remain exactly the same, Civil War does not affect Thor: Ragnarok in any way. That means Loki and Heimdall still die, Hulk is sent to Earth and he lands on the Sanctum Santorum meeting Doctor Strange. However, differently from the movie, instead of finding Tony Stark in the park and bringing him to the Sanctum, he could just leave Wong protecting it and teleport himself and Bruce Banner to the Avengers mansion, meeting up with not only Tony, but other heroes. All of them would be there, with the exception of Peter Parker, who'd be in a field trip with school and wouldn't be in the Avengers mansion, most likely not appearing in the whole movie in this alternate universe.

While we don't know exactly how Thanos managed to know where the Earth infinity stones were at, we could say that due to the fact of the two stones being together at the same place (Strange's Time Stone and Vision's mind gem) we'd most likely have the entire Black Order arriving in the Avengers mansion instead of downtown New York (another reason why Spidey wouldn't participate). Bruce Banner, though, will still need the Hulkbuster in this case, as none of them don't know of his situation with Hulk, they can't give him the suit just yet. So it basically becomes Avengers roster + Doctor Strange -Spidey vs. the Black Order. I'm no battle forums expert, but I believe that the Avengers take it here in a tough battle.

The GOTG and Thor stuff remain the same as, once again, Civil War has no effect on any of these events. Meanwhile, the Avengers have a lot of time to prepare themselves for the big battle with Thanos. Vision wouldn't be injured since Corvus Glaive wouldn't be able to surprise attack him in the Avengers mansion like he did in the Scotland sequence in the movie. However, they wouldn't be able to figure out a way to take out the stone from Vision's head without straight up killing him, since only Shuri was able to figure that one out (we don't know if Tony Stark could do it, but Bruce Banner didn't think of that). Doctor Strange, like in the movie, checks the possibilities of a positive outcome for the heroes. Thanos would arrive in Titan only to see none of the members of the Black Order came back, so he's gotta head to Earth and do it himself.

Arriving on Earth, Thanos would be faced with the same situation as he did in Titan, facing multiple heroes. So it is basically Thanos with 3 gems vs. the Avengers roster +Doctor Strange - Spidey and with Thor showing up later in the fight. In the movie, it seemed like Thor arrived in Wakanda with Rocket and Groot at the same time the battle in Titan started, so it would only be fair if they arrived mid battle. Scarlet Witch has shown to have mind controlling abilities in the movies, so she could fill in the role that Mantis filled in the original plan, with other heroes trying to take the glove off.

One could say that without Peter Quill, the "take the glove off" plan would work in this scenario, however, they have someone who could foil this plan just like Star-Lord did: Thor. Lusting for Thanos' blood and wanting him to see the man who killed him, Thor would most likely foil this plan while trying to kill Thanos, however, as he yet does not have all the stones, Thor might end up just killing Thanos and ending this battle.

If Thor fails to kill Thanos but still ruins the plan, the Avengers would most likely start getting beaten until they resort to killing Vision in order to prevent Thanos from getting the stones, with the exception that here the Mad Titan wouldn't have the time stone, incapacitating him from going back in time and getting the stone anyway. That is unless he gets the time stone from Doctor Strange, because if he does, Thanos succeeds and snaps his finger.

So the three possible outcomes are Thor killing Thanos, Vision dying and preventing Thanos from getting the mind stone or the original ending that is the snap.

And this is what would happen if MCU's Civil War never existed.

Thank you for having the patience to read through this big block of text, if there's anything you'd like to add or something you disagree with, please comment! After all, this is just theorizing on my own part.

That's a lot of thought you put into this